Condo Pipeline & Demand Model — Pattaya Site

Internal · 2026-05-19 · Site @ 12.9439, 100.9086 · East Pattaya (Nong Prue, east of Sukhumvit, between Soi Khao Noi & Soi Khao Talo)

★ Headline finding

Reality check on location: The site is inland East Pattaya, not beachfront. ~3.5–4.5 km from Pattaya Beach, ~5–7 km from Jomtien Beach. The huge new-supply story you read about in Pattaya (Aquarous Jomtien, Grand Solaire, Riviera Beverly Hills, PTY Sansiri, Once Wongamat, Tait by Raimon Land) is concentrated on the beach side, mostly 4–7 km from this site — outside the 3 km storage catchment.

What's actually inside 3 km: A mix of (a) older completed condos (Nirun, Dusit Grand Park, Centric Sea, Park Lane, The Base, City Garden — built 2014–2020), (b) inland villa/townhouse developments (Patta Ville, KOJI Villa, Layan Residence, Astro Hill, The Prospect, M Mountain), and (c) a few actual new condo launches in catchment — most notably SO Origin Pattaya (790 units, Q2 2026) on Sukhumvit and Zenith Pattaya (582 units, 2028).

Bottom line: The "thousands of new condo units pouring into Pattaya" headline does not translate into thousands of units inside this site's 3 km storage catchment. The inland catchment is dominated by lower-density housing — which actually helps storage demand (houses have more stuff than studios) but means the per-square-kilometre new-condo wave is much smaller than the beach belt.

0. Catchment geometry

3 km

Primary catchment radius (drive-up)

~28 km²

Catchment area (π·3²)

3.5–4.5 km

To Pattaya Beach

5–7 km

To Jomtien Beach

Sub-areas inside the 3 km circle (east-of-Sukhumvit, inland Pattaya): East Pattaya / Nong Prue (core) Soi Khao Noi Soi Khao Talo Soi Nern Plubwan (south part) Soi Siam Country Club (entrance) Pattaya Klang east end Thep Prasit east end Sukhumvit Pattaya corridor (Soi 39–87). Mostly outside 3 km: Jomtien beach, Pratumnak Hill, Wongamat / Naklua, Central Pattaya beachfront, Soi Buakhao, Mabprachan Lake (east of catchment).

1. Projects inside ~3 km — verified pipeline

Sources: PropertyScout, Hipflat, FazWaz, DDproperty, Cornerstone, Property Connection, KaiBaanThai, AssetWise/Origin/Habitat/Riviera/Raimon official sites, CBRE Pattaya Figures H1/H2 2025, Pattaya.love, Pattaya Property Finder. Distance to site is straight-line, rounded.

1a. Condos — in 3 km radius, under construction or recently completed

Project	Developer	Status	Units	Complete	Sub-area / Soi	From THB	Dist (km)
SO Origin Pattaya	Origin Property	Under construction	790	Q2 2026	Sukhumvit Pattaya 41/3, Na Kluea side (north edge of catchment)	2.39 M	~2.8
Zenith Pattaya	Heights Holdings (Grand Solaire team)	Pre-sale / off-plan	582	2028	Central Pattaya / Thep Prasit area	2.80 M	~2.5
Tait Pattaya	Raimon Land	Pre-sale (Sep 2025 launch)	311	~2028	Pattaya 2nd Rd × Central Pattaya Rd (west edge of catchment)	5.85 M	~2.8
Once Pattaya	Honour Group / Once group	Completed	~640	2023	Sukhumvit 99 corner, Na Kluea/East Pattaya	~3.5 M	~2.5
The Base Central Pattaya	Sansiri	Completed	~635	2019	Pattaya Klang	~3.8 M	~2.3
Centric Sea Pattaya	Sansiri	Completed	~1,344	2017	Central Pattaya / 2nd Rd (west edge)	~3.5 M	~2.9
The Trust Condo Central Pattaya	The Trust	Completed	~480	2018	Central Pattaya	~2.8 M	~2.6
City Center Residence	Local	Completed	~285	2018	Central Pattaya inland	1.42 M	~2.5
City Garden Tower / Pattaya	Global Top Group	Completed	~370+780	2014/2009	Central Pattaya inland	~2.0 M	~2.5
Nova Atrium	Nova Group	Completed	~80	~2014	Pattaya Klang Soi 12	~3.5 M	~2.0
Apus Condominium	Tulip Group	Completed	~300	2014	Pratumnak / Soi Pattaya Sai 3	~3.5 M	~2.9
Dusit Grand Park 1 & 2	Dusit Group	Completed	967 + 531	2017 / 2021	Thep Prasit Soi 9 (south edge)	~3.0 M	~2.9
The Win Condominium	Local	Completed	112	~2019	Soi Khao Talo 4, off Sukhumvit	~2.5 M	~1.5
Blue Residence (Soi 87)	Local	Completed	~120	2017	Sukhumvit Soi 87, East Pattaya	~1.8 M	~1.8
De Blue Resort Condo	Local	Completed	~507	~2014	Sukhumvit Soi 50 / Soi 53, East Pattaya	~1.2 M	~2.7
S-Fifty (Phases 1–5)	Local	Completed + 1 off-plan	~400	2014–2026	Sukhumvit Soi 50, South Pattaya	~1.5 M	~2.8
Pattaya Posh	Local	Completed	unknown	~2019	East Pattaya inland	unknown	~1.5
Espana Condo Resort	Matrix / local	Completed	~700+	2018	Jomtien Soi 5/Sukhumvit (south edge)	2.30 M	~2.9

Status legend: Under construction / pre-sale · Recently completed (2017–2024) still selling resale. Distance is great-circle from 12.9439, 100.9086; road distance ~10–25% longer. Several "central Pattaya" projects sit on the western 2.6–2.9 km arc — verify with VA / Google Earth before relying on them as catchment.

1b. Houses, villas, townhouses — in 3 km, completing 2023–2026

East Pattaya's pipeline is house-heavy. These households are the better storage customer than studio condos (more stuff, longer tenure, family relocations).

Project	Developer	Status	Units	Complete	Sub-area / Soi	From THB	Dist (km)
The Prospect Villas	Grand Paradise Villa	Under construction	80	2025	Dragon Vein Hill, East Pattaya	~25 M	~2.5
Siam Royal View Lakeside	Opus Estates	UC (Phase 1 Q2'25 / Ph2 Q4'26)	14	2025–2026	Soi Khao Talo 24	~50 M	~1.8
The Prestige at Siam Royal View	Opus / SRV	Completed 2023	unknown	2023	Siam Country Club Rd	~22 M	~2.7
KOJI Villa	Local	Completed 2024	16	2024	Nong Prue inland	8.99 M	~1.5
Astro Hill Pattaya	S.Wealth Dev	Completed 2023	7	2023	Nong Prue / Khao Noi	unknown	~1.6
M Mountain Grand Villa	Local	Completed 2023	9	2023	Nong Prue hillside	49.9 M	~1.7
Rungsii Village Pattaya	Rungsii	Under construction	16	2025	Nong Prue	12.56 M	~1.5
Patta Ville	Patta	Completed 2022	125	2022	Nong Prue (Khao Talo)	~6 M	~1.4
Glam Boonsampan 6	Thanyaseth Dev	Ready to move 2026	12	2026	Nong Prue / Boonsampan	unknown	~1.5
PJ Village	Local	Completed 2024	16	2024	Nong Prue	7.48 M	~1.5
Makok Hill Villas	Local	Completed 2024	8	2024	Nong Prue hillside	unknown	~1.6
Garden Ville 9	Patta / local	Under construction	26	2025–2026	East Pattaya	6.65 M	~2.0
Layan Residence Pattaya	Layan	Completed (rolling)	unknown	2022–2025	Nong Prue / Soi Siam CC	~10 M	~2.4
Supalai Parkville Pattaya-Sukhumvit	Supalai	Selling (some phases recent)	237	~2020+	Nong Prue / Sukhumvit	7.48 M	~2.3
Baan Mae 10 (Bibury)	Local	Completed 2023	~20	2023	Nong Prue	15.99 M	~1.8
The Plantation Estates	Local	Selling	28	~2024	Nong Prue	unknown	~2.2

There are 200+ named house projects in Nong Prue per DotProperty/PropertyScout. Above is a sample of the post-2022 cohort with verifiable launches. A VA on the ground could enumerate another ~30–50 small (6–30 unit) gated developments — most are too small to be individually material but collectively significant.

1c. Major projects EXCLUDED — outside 3 km

These dominate Pattaya press coverage but sit 4–7 km from this site — they belong to the Jomtien / Wongamat / Pratumnak storage catchments, not this one.

Project	Developer	Units	Complete	Where	Dist (km)
Aquarous Jomtien	AssetWise	606	2027	Jomtien 2nd Rd, 500 m from beach	~5.5
Grand Solaire Pattaya	Heights Holdings	2,470	Q4 2026	Thappraya Rd (Pratumnak side)	~4.5
Riviera Beverly Hills	Riviera Group	445	Dec 2027	Jomtien	~5.0
Riviera California	Riviera Group	122	Feb 2029	Thappraya / Jomtien	~4.5
Riviera Palm Beach	Riviera Group	298	Dec 2029	Wongamat / Naklua 16	~6.5
Riviera Malibu Residence	Riviera Group	279	Dec 2026	Pratumnak	~4.5
Copacabana Coral Reef	Heights Holdings	1,972	Apr 2027	Jomtien 400 m from beach	~5.5
Skypark Lucean (Banyan Tree)	Lunique RE	899	2026/2027	Jomtien	~5.0
Seaspire Jomtien	Dusit High Tower	451	2029	Jomtien beachfront	~5.5
Seven Seas Le Carnival	Seven Seas	1,499	2026	Jomtien 2nd Rd	~5.3
PTY Residence Sai 1	Sansiri	327	2027	Pattaya Beach Rd (Sai 1)	~4.0
Once Wongamat	Honour Group	548	~2028	Wongamat (North Pattaya)	~6.0
Siam Oriental Dream	Siam Oriental	~150	May 2026	Pratumnak Soi 5	~4.0
Pristine Park 3	Dusit Group	unknown	2028	Jomtien / South Pattaya	~4.5
Ramada Mira North Pattaya	Habitat Group	330	Jun 2023	Naklua / Wongamat (Terminal 21)	~5.5
Wyndham Grand Residences Wongamat	Habitat Group	451	Jul 2026	Wongamat	~6.0
Avenue Boutique Condo	Local	276	Q2 2029	Soi Buakhao 15 (500m from beach)	~3.5
Embassy Pattaya / Embassy Life	Matrix Developments	unknown	2029	Central Pattaya (beach side)	~3.5

2. Pattaya market context (verified, CBRE)

10 projects

New condo launches H1 2025 city-wide

3,377 units

H1 2025 launches (mostly mid-range 2–4M)

1,716 units

H2 2025 launches — record low since H2 2023

<320 units

Max project size in H2 2025 (downsizing trend)

Source: CBRE Thailand Pattaya Overall Figures H1/H2 2025. Pattaya is in a soft-launch phase — developers are pulling back to smaller projects. Of H1 2025 launches, the highest proportion was mid-range (THB 2–4 M / unit). Colliers reports 20 Chonburi launches worth ฿43.28 B in 2024, of which 13 (7,897 units) were on Jomtien Beach (outside our catchment) and 7 (2,540 units) in the rest of Pattaya including East Pattaya/Naklua.

3. Demand model — 3 km catchment

3a. Unit inventory in catchment

Condos under construction / pre-sale in 3 km (SO Origin + Zenith + Tait + S-Fifty Ph5)~1,720 units

Condos completed 2023–2025 still selling in 3 km (Once + others)~750 units

Houses/villas completing 2023–2026 in 3 km (sample list above)~390 units

Estimated unlisted small house developments (VA verification needed)~400 units

Total NEW + recently-completed dwellings in 3 km (2023–2028)~3,260 units

"Existing stock" of older condos in catchment (Centric Sea, The Base, City Garden, Dusit Grand Park, Nirun, hundreds of 2010s-era inland condos) is separately measured at 2,000+ for-sale listings active in Nong Prue alone (KaiBaanThai). The 3,260 figure is incremental net-new only. Total catchment dwelling stock is materially larger (~20,000+).

3b. Storage take-up assumptions

Conservative (Russian/Thai-dense mix)

✓ 3% of dwellings take premium storage
✓ 4 m² average per active customer
✓ Demand from new pipeline only: ~390 m²

Base (expat-dense East Pattaya mix)

✓ 5% of dwellings take premium storage
✓ 4 m² average per active customer
✓ Demand from new pipeline only: ~650 m²

Aggressive (Western retiree + house-owner mix)

! 7% take-up — houses average more stuff than studios; Pattaya retiree share ~35% (higher than Phuket); seasonal back-and-forth pattern fits well
! 5 m² average (house customers go bigger than condo customers)
! Demand from new pipeline only: ~1,140 m²

3c. Including existing stock (cumulative addressable demand)

Storage isn't just about new builds — every existing dwelling is also a candidate. Conservative 20,000 dwelling units in 3 km catchment (sum of Nong Prue condo listings + East Pattaya houses + South Pattaya / Pattaya Klang inland condos).

Existing + new dwellings in 3 km (conservative)~20,000 units

× 4% take-up (premium tier captures slice of catchment)800 customers

× 4 m² average rented3,200 m²

Total Addressable Demand (TAD) at full maturity~3,200 m² NLA

Pattaya storage market is virtually empty of premium operators — competition section in /dd.html confirms 4 competitors in 5 km, none Tier-1. Realistic capture in Years 1–3 is ~15–25% of TAD = 480–800 m² addressable revenue-bearing inventory.

3d. Versus Phuket Safebox benchmark

580 m²

Phuket Safebox NLA (current)

650 m²

Pattaya new-pipeline demand (base case, new units only)

3,200 m²

Pattaya TAD (existing + new, 4% take-up)

5.5×

Pattaya TAD ÷ Phuket NLA

Read this carefully: The Pattaya catchment is materially larger than Phuket's by raw dwelling count — but the customer mix is different (more Russian/Thai SME, less digital nomad), and the premium-storage adoption curve in Thailand is still early. A 580 m² Phuket-clone facility would more than fill in the inland East Pattaya catchment based on the base case — but the right opening size depends on capital, ramp tolerance, and whether you want headroom for Years 3–5 expansion.

4. Good / Bad / Ugly assessment

✓ The Good

SO Origin Pattaya (790 units, Q2 2026) is right inside catchment — Sukhumvit corridor. Studio/1-bed buyers = prime storage customers when furniture doesn't fit.
Zenith Pattaya (582 units, 2028) adds another big inland tower.
House-heavy pipeline in Nong Prue / Soi Siam Country Club / Khao Talo / Khao Noi = better storage customer than studio renters (more stuff, longer tenure, family moves).
Retiree-heavy demographic (35% retiree share per DD page) = seasonal-storage demand pattern (snowbirds, half-year residents).
Tier-1 competition is absent — no premium climate-controlled operator inside 5 km.
~20,000 existing dwellings in catchment = large latent base, not just pipeline-dependent.

! The Bad

The big Pattaya pipeline isn't in your catchment. Aquarous (606), Grand Solaire (2,470), Riviera Beverly Hills (445), Copacabana (1,972), Seven Seas Le Carnival (1,499), Skypark Lucean (899), Sansiri PTY (327) — all 4–7 km away, on the beach side.
CBRE H2 2025 launches dropped to 1,716 units city-wide, record low since H2 2023. Developers are slowing down.
Most beach-belt buyers are second-home / investment — they sit empty 8–10 months/year and don't need storage. East Pattaya owner-occupied is actually the better demographic, but absolute new-unit volume is smaller.
Many "new" East Pattaya house projects are tiny (6–20 units each) — collectively material but hard to market to one development at a time.
Thai-quota condo buyers (50% of any building) often buy for family/elderly relatives or rental — much lower storage propensity than foreign-quota owners.

✗ The Ugly

Data quality is poor. No central registry. PropertyScout/Hipflat/FazWaz have overlapping but inconsistent lists. Several "Nong Prue" tags actually mean "Jomtien Soi 5" or "Pratumnak Soi 6" — Nong Prue is the subdistrict, not the neighbourhood.
Russians dominate the expat mix (10–15k) but Russian buyers are often cash-poor renters in 1.2–2.5M baht studios — low storage propensity vs. owner-occupier Brits/Germans/Nordics.
SO Origin = lobby-furnished studios. Buyers don't bring excess furniture — they hire month-to-month. Take-up rate could be closer to 2% not 5%.
Soi Khao Talo + Soi Khao Noi drainage/road widening referenced in multiple sources — could disrupt access during construction window.
Catchment overlaps with Jomtien for west-side customers. A Jomtien-area customer who drives Sukhumvit might find a Thep Prasit operator more convenient than this site even if straight-line distance is similar.
The 2,470-unit Grand Solaire alone is ~4× the entire 3 km new-condo pipeline — but it's just outside catchment. If a competitor opens between Thappraya and Sukhumvit they capture Grand Solaire's residents, not you.

5. Verifiable vs. needs-confirmation

✓ Verified from primary sources

SO Origin Pattaya: 790 units, Q2 2026, Sukhumvit 41/3 — Origin Property official site
Zenith Pattaya: 582 units, 2028 — Heights Holdings press
Tait Pattaya: 311 units, Sep 2025 pre-sale launch — Raimon Land official
Aquarous Jomtien: 606 units, 2027 — AssetWise official (excluded; outside 3 km)
CBRE H1 2025: 10 projects / 3,377 units launched city-wide
CBRE H2 2025: only 1,716 units launched (slowdown confirmed)
The Prospect Villas 80 units, Siam Royal View Lakeside 14 villas — PropertyScout
Pattaya retiree share, ~60–90k foreign residents in Bang Lamung — DD page

! Needs VA / on-ground confirmation

Exact straight-line distance for each "central Pattaya" condo — several are right at the 2.5–3.0 km arc and could be on either side of catchment
Unit counts on smaller house projects (Astro Hill, Makok Hill, M Mountain, PJ Village) — sourced from listing aggregators, not developer EIA filings
"~400 unlisted small house developments" — order-of-magnitude estimate from DotProperty's 236-project Nong Prue index, needs ground-truth
Pattaya Posh, Blue Residence, De Blue — completion dates and developer names not verified at primary source
Whether SO Origin buyer mix is more Thai / more foreign (matters for storage propensity)
Take-up rate % — 3/5/7% are reasonable but untested assumptions for the Pattaya inland market
"~20,000 existing dwellings in catchment" — derived from KaiBaanThai's 2,108 active Nong Prue condo listings × turnover assumptions; needs a proper dwelling-count from Chonburi land registry or Pattaya City Hall

6. Recommended next actions

✓ Send a VA to drive Soi Khao Talo + Soi Khao Noi + Sukhumvit 41–87 and photograph every house/condo development sign, recording GPS coords. Should take 1 day and produce a definitive in-catchment list.
✓ Pull Chonburi DOPA dwelling-count data for Tambon Nong Prue + Tambon Bang Lamung — the official population & household registry. Gives a true denominator.
✓ Re-run with Storeganise Phuket facility data — what % of Phuket Safebox's customer base comes from condos vs. houses vs. expats vs. Thai? Calibrate the take-up assumption against actual conversion data instead of a guess.
✓ Phone or email SO Origin sales (+66 944 423 231) — ask what % of buyers are foreign vs. Thai, owner-occupier vs. investor. This is the single most important pipeline input.
✓ Map overlay: Render this list on /index.html with concentric 1/2/3 km rings to visually confirm in/out classifications. Several "~2.8 km" entries are sensitive to the exact map projection used.
! Decide opening NLA. Phuket clone (~580 m²) is materially undersized for the TAD estimate; a 700–900 m² opening with Year-3 expansion option is the more honest sizing — but only if Phuket conversion data supports the 4% take-up.

Generated 2026-05-19 from: PropertyScout (Nong Prue/East Pattaya project lists), Hipflat, FazWaz, DDproperty, KaiBaanThai (2,108 Nong Prue condo listings), Cornerstone, Property Connection, Pattaya.love new-developments guide, CBRE Thailand Pattaya Overall Figures H1 & H2 2025, Colliers Thailand 2024 Chonburi launches report, Bangkok Post & Nation Thailand property coverage, and developer official sites (AssetWise, Origin, Habitat Group, Riviera Group, Heights Holdings, Raimon Land, Dusit Group, Sansiri). All unit counts and completion years subject to developer revision. Distances are great-circle from 12.943903, 100.908612 rounded to 0.1 km.